Why Marcon’s New Iran Deal Is Bearish For Oil Prices (USO)

From Tyler Durden: With crude oil surging in recent weeks as a result of geopolitical tensions, including Trump’s tariffs on Russia but mostly due to concerns the US president will terminate the Iran nuclear deal in two and a half weeks, eliminating roughly 1 million barrels in Iranian output from the market, it was to be expected that the mere suggestion that the Iranian deal could be salvaged – as virtually all of Europe has insisted and pleaded with Trump – would send oil tumbling.

That’s precisely what happened moments ago, when during his press conference with Donald Trump, French President Emmanuel Macron proposed a new Iran deal, noting that a “new deal” would block nuclear activity to 2025.

Here’s a breakdown of Macron’s “Plan B” for the Iran, per CBS.

“I always said there is the JCPOA but we needed to add three pillars post 2025. I don’t know what President Trump will decide on the JCPOA and it is his responsibility,” said Macron when asked again on the Iran deal.

“I’m not saying we’re moving from one deal to another, I’m saying its one aspect of the problem,” Macron said. He added, “I’ve never been critical [of the JCPOA] because I think we can usefully add to it.”

Macron again urged adding limitations on Iran’s ballistic missile program and limiting Iran’s regional influence to a potential new deal.

“It’s about respecting the sovereignty of the states in the region,” added Macron. “It’s not about tearing apart an agreement but building something new that will cover all of our concerns.”

In a kneejerk response, oil tumbled by nearly one dollar, sliding below the $69 level it reached earlier today for the first time since 2014, and dropping briefly below $68, in the process slamming Inflation breakevens, and the broader market, as suddenly inflation is not looking all that certain.

That said, Trump did everything in his power to assure his best weapon purchasing buddy, Saudi Arabia, that a renewed deal with Iran is anything but certain:

  • TRUMP SAYS IF IRAN THREATENS U.S. IN ANY WAY THEY WILL PAY A PRICE LIKE FEW COUNTRIES HAVE EVER PAID
  • TRUMP SAYS `NOBODY KNOWS’ WHAT I’M GOING TO DO ON IRAN DEAL MAY 12: PRESS BRIEF.

As Trump suggests, we may indeed have to wait until May 12 to know what the president will decide, although judging by the oil move today, it no longer appears definite that Trump will kill the Iran deal.

The United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO) rose $0.10 (+0.73%) in premarket trading Thursday. Year-to-date, USO has gained 14.24%, versus a -1.21% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.

USO currently has an ETF Daily News SMART Grade of B (Buy), and is ranked #35 of 113 ETFs in the Commodity ETFs category.


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